Updates to the CryptoCup bet pricing model
Based on the success of the original story among the CryptoCup players, I will publish semi-regular updates with the updated results from new matches until the end of the World Cup. If you have no idea what I’m talking about, here's the original story.
I will edit this Medium Story whenever I do updated model runs so as not to fill my Medium account with a ton of crappy stories. If you are a greedy bastard and want to hear about updates ASAP in order to try to get ahead of everyone else and buy the underpriced tickets, follow me on Twitter (quid pro quo, my greedy bastard friend).
Update from June 24
We've done a new model run with the results of Sunday June 24. This simulation has 30K simulated World Cups (the original one had 10K). I've updated the original spreadsheet with a new sheet, as well as added a summary sheet where you can track the evolution of some marketplace metrics.
Here's my random selection of thoughts on the data:
- Ticket #46, who used to be the best ticket in terms of expected value (0.528) took some pounding with the latest results and is now 23rd best with a (still respectable) expected payout of 0.281 eth. The poor sod has Argentina coming up 3rd which seems very unlikely now, and is living proof that us Argies are not the only ones disappointed with the squad. On the other hand, he picked Belgium as the champion, a prediction I made fun of a week ago but seems more and more reasonable every day.
- The new best bet is Ticket #482 by a guy called n0x who is already a minor celebrity in the Telegram group. It is rumored that he is a time traveler from 2019 with poor creativity. His ticket is currently the only one with an expected payout over 1 eth, but is sadly not for sale right now.
- Ticket #688, currently at 57th and with 99 points, is the lone underpriced ticket right now. If you are still with me and not already gone and trying to buy it, you will feel better once I tell you that I just lied and hopefully those guys will realize that at 12 eth it can't possibly be a good buy (expected ROI of that transaction: -99%). This concludes my brief adaptation of John Oliver's Geography routine.
- As a reward for your patience and wisdom, I hereby inform you that ticket #291, currently at 179th, is the only actual underpriced ticket for sale right now (with a very decent expected payout of 0.206 eth, but for sale at 0.18 eth, so a 13% discount).
- Other Overpriced But Reasonably Priced Tickets (OBuRPTs) as of right now: #298 (1.1x), #541 (1.24x), #247 (1.83x), #374 (1.91x)
Update from June 29
After a few major events in the last matches of the groups stage (Germany's out in case you haven't heard), here's an updated pricing run in your favorite Google Docs spreadsheet. Some of the highlights:
- n0x is still on top (duh) with Ticket #482, with an expected value of 1.564 eth but still not selling. Of course he picked Brazil and not Germany as the winner.
- A whopping 3 tickets are underpriced (a record!): #85 (currently 437th with 424 points) at 0.083 eth (0.4x, EP=0.21 eth), #291 (currently 197th with 479 points) at 0.1238 eth (0.71x, EP=0.174 eth), #616 (currently 71st with 517 points) at 0.3 eth (0.84x, EP=0.358 eth)
- An honorable mention goes to fao, owner of Ticket #198 (currently 51st with 521 points) for the most accurately priced ticket in the entire marketplace, selling for 0.088 eth at an expected payout of 0.0874 (1.01x). I hope he loses his touch or I'm going to lose my job as CryptoCup's go-to price analyst.
- Other OBuRPTs: A lonely #643 (1.83x)
Update from July 4
Hey! With the quarterfinals all geared up here's the latest (and possibly the last!) run of the model. The best bets are clearly solidifying right now as a lot of the top tickets from the previous rounds still maintain good dominant positions.
- n0x is still king of the hill with ticket #482. His expected payout is now a whopping 4.24 eth. We'll see if he can go all the way during the next week but he is guaranteed a reasonable standing with the current points he has so far.
- This week's lone underpriced bet is ticket #409, with an expected payout of 0.25 eth but for sale at 0.173 (0.7x).
- Other OBuRPTs: #398 (1.08x) and 565 (1.57x)
As usual, each model run has a new sheet on the spreadsheet linked above. In case you missed it above, here's the link to the full data spreadsheet:
If you liked this…
In case you couldn't tell from the rest of this post, I’m a bit of a nerd so comments about the model and the results are always welcome.