A pricing model for CryptoCup bets (my attempt at doing sports for a living)

What's CryptoCup?

A single CryptoCup ticket. I shit you not, 800 people filled this in (and paid for the privilege).
  • The betting phase: People can pay to purchase a ticket and fill in their predictions. This stage finishes a few hours before the beginning of the World Cup (and it's been over for approximately a week as I write this).
  • The marketplace phase: Even though people can't buy new tickets once the World Cup begins, they are able to trade their bets by buying or selling other people’s bets on a marketplace. This is the phase we are in right now.

Analyzing the market

If you buy this then I have some BitConnect tokens that you might like

Kicking it up a notch

Bonus question: what's the best bet for this match-up?
  1. Generate a full World Cup simulation, including the known results so far
  2. Score every existing ticket in CryptoCup for that World Cup outcome
  3. With that score, rank the tickets
  4. Calculate the payouts for each ticket based on the ranking
  5. Repeat the process a few thousand times and get some average payouts for each ticket

Becoming an overnight millionaire

  • Ticket #239, currently at 619th, is the only underpriced ticket for sale right now (expected payout of 0.05 eth, but for sale at 0.033 eth)
  • Ticket #254, currently at 91st, is the most overpriced ticket (selling at 2 eth, 2817x its expected payout of 0.0007 eth)
  • Ticket #46, currently at 7th, is the best ticket in the game at this point with an expected payout of 0.528 eth (current price: 2 eth).
The most beautiful spreadsheet you’ve seen all week

So what now?

Tickets for each predicted payout range

I hereby offer to purchase any CryptoCup ticket at 60% of its expected payout value according to the model above.*

Last but not least

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Entrepreneur, investor and advisor.

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Gonzalo Sainz Trápaga

Gonzalo Sainz Trápaga

Entrepreneur, investor and advisor.

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